$100,000 H-1B visa fee among 7 key factors that will steer D-Street this week

Indian equities closed higher for the third straight week, supported by positive cues from both domestic and global markets. After a subdued start, benchmark indices gained ground through most of the week, though profit-booking in the final session trimmed some gains. The Nifty and Sensex ended nearly 1% higher, at 25,327 and 82,626, respectively.

Sentiment was buoyed by renewed optimism over the resumption of India-US trade talks and the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025. Positive spillover from recently announced GST reforms continued to aid consumption-linked sectors, while Crisil’s forecast of softer FY26 inflation at 3.2% reinforced expectations of further RBI policy easing later this year.

Gains, however, were partially tempered by a mixed trend in foreign institutional investor (FII) flows.

Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:
1) H-1B visa fee

Markets will react this week to US President Trump’s executive order imposing an annual $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, announced late Friday.

2) India-US trade deal

Any updates on the India–US trade negotiations will also be closely monitored. Export-driven sectors are already under tariff-related pressures, and the visa fee could further weigh on IT services exporters at a sensitive time for trade discussions.

3) Economic data

On the domestic front, HSBC’s Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI flash estimates for September are scheduled for release on September 23, followed by banking data on loan and deposit growth, and foreign exchange reserves on September 26.

4) US market performance

Globally, investors will track US market trends in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut.

5) Technical factors

The market undertone remains firmly positive, with any dip or consolidation likely healthy for the next leg of the rally.

“In this setup, the 25,200–25,100 zone (breakout level) now acts as strong support. On the flip side, the 25,450–25,500 band, coinciding with trendline resistance, is the immediate hurdle, followed by the June swing high at 25,670,” said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst, Angel One.

“A decisive breakout beyond this zone would open the path towards new all-time highs. Considering overbought conditions and proximity to key resistance, a short-term consolidation with a positive bias is likely,” he added.

6) FII Flows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have largely been net sellers or inactive, reflecting caution amid currency volatility and global uncertainty. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, have been steady buyers, supporting market stability amid FII outflows. This divergence suggests domestic investors are cushioning the market while FIIs await clearer triggers or improved currency conditions before resuming larger investments.

7) Currency movement

The strengthening US dollar against the Indian rupee is keeping FIIs cautious. Since the start of the current financial year, the dollar has appreciated nearly 3% against the rupee.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)