The stock market has surged to record highs since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July. Will the good vibes continue if she wins the White House? The answer might differ sector-by-sector.
Fortune surveyed analysts and academics about what stocks could rally on a Harris victory, as well as what companies might see their shares drop. Here are some companies to keep in mind:
Harris and former President Donald Trump differ starkly when it comes to climate and energy policy. As vice president, Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act. Joe Biden’s signature climate law passed without any Republican support, and Trump has pledged to dismantle the system of tax credits and subsides that he’s dubbed a “green new scam.”
Whether Trump would be able to follow through on those campaign promises is unclear, but a Harris victory is likely much better news for renewables. Shares of First Solar, America’s largest builder of solar panels, have dropped 16% this month amid a backdrop of industry volatility and election uncertainty. A Harris victory could reward investors who have bought the dip.
A Harris administration could also help electric vehicle manufacturers looking to gain ground on Elon Musk’s Tesla, particularly as the EV giant’s CEO has put his full support behind Donald Trump. Musk’s political activism, including his public spats with California officials, has already presented an opportunity to companies like Rivian to pick off disgruntled progressive customers. As Musk seemingly bets Tesla’s future on autonomous driving, government subsidies and tax credits are critical to the chances of companies like Rivian to compete.
Offshore wind figures to benefit from a Harris win as well. Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has invested over $13 billion into the U.S. and UK over the past 12 months, fueling a 150% surge in profits for the first nine months of the year. Its American subsidiary, Avangrid, is available for a modest price-to-earnings ratio just north of 12, according to S&P Global.
Then there are less obvious choices. Shares of defense contractors like Honeywell, for example, have somewhat moved in tandem with chances of a Harris victory, according to a preliminary analysis by Georgetown University’s Michael Bailey. That could reflect how Harris is presumably a surer bet to continue America’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Finally, a Harris victory could allow major importers to breathe a sigh of relief. Trump’s proposals of at least a 10% worldwide tariff and a 60% tax on all Chinese goods would not be good news for big retailers like Target, so a Harris victory could erase concerns currently priced in to its shares.
