“So, looking at the overall structure it is on the weaker side only. If we go with the rollover data also, the rollover is clearly suggesting that shorts have been rolled over for this series,” Palviya told ET Now. He added that August series ended with Nifty down 1.2% and Bank Nifty slipping nearly 4%, while FIIs remained net short and added more short contracts in the September series.
The technical picture reinforces this weak setup. “Both indices are now trading below the 200-day moving average, which is also a sign of weakness for the near-term to short-term perspective,” Palviya said.
He highlighted 24,500 as a key level for Nifty, cautioning that sustained trade below it could drag the index to 24,200 or even 24,100. For Bank Nifty, he warned the trend will stay bearish unless it reclaims 54,200, with possible downside targets at 53,400 and 53,200.
“This is almost second consecutive week where we are making lower high-low formation. So, it shows that sustained supply pressure is taking place in Bank Nifty also,” he added.
Palviya also noted weakness in heavyweights like Reliance, which slipped below its key support zone post AGM, but emphasised that the broader market trend will be dictated by rollover positioning and index levels.“If it continues to trade below 1370, 1380 zone, we may see furthermore profit taking in this counter and maybe in the down move stock can correct further towards 1320, even 1300 zone,” he said, adding that a breakout above 1,440 could trigger a fresh rally. While cautious on the overall market, Palviya identified Britannia as a buy candidate with targets of 5,980–5,990, and suggested shorts in LIC with a downside target of 830.
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